Thursday, December 21, 2006

Where's Hillary?

Well, it's just about Christmas and seems like every week we hear of another candidate who is running.

Where is Hillary?

Everyone knows she will run, and might even have a good shot at winning. Is she going to wait until the last minute to posture?

I think that perhaps holding out as late as possible allows her time to fly under the radar. Once she announces her candidacy, I would imagine the attacks would begin.

Monday, November 20, 2006

Kerry's Finished

The botched joke did him in. I absolutely believe Kerry botched a joke about Bush. There is no way he was insulting the troops or anything like that. Of course that doesn't matter. Just as he couldn't get out in front of the swift boaters during the campaign he never stood a chance on this one.

The problem is he cannot deliver the lines. He doesn't have it in him. He is no match for Edwards, Obama, or Hillary. Coupled with the fact that the media ran with the "Kerry insulted the troops" angle that makes him unelectable.

The sad truth is once again the election will be won by the campaign with the best ten second sound bites. The American public as a whole simply doesn't have the attention span for anything more complicated.

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Time to get going

With potential candidates forming committees the time has come to get this blog going again.

I was surprised when Sen. Feingold opted out so early, even more surprised when Tommy Thompson opted in. In or out, who do you think is next?

Sunday, May 14, 2006

Election 2006 Poll

May 9, 2006--A quarter century after Ronald Reagan rode the tax revolt to the White House, Americans continue to believe that tax cuts help the economy and tax hikes hurt.

Since early April, Rasmussen Reports has polled about general tax issues in 33 states. All 33 conform to the national trend, varying only in degree (see State-by-State Tax Data).

Massachusetts, not surprisingly, was the least enthusiastic state concerning the economic benefits of tax cuts. Just 44% of Bay Staters believe tax cuts are good for the economy while 25% say they hurt.

Michigan has the highest percentage who believe that tax cuts hurt the economy--28%.

At the other extreme are Georgia and Oklahoma--in both states 63% say tax cuts are good for the economy and 15% take the opposite view.

In 24 of the 33 states, a majority believe that tax cuts are beneficial.

In 29 of 33 states, a plurality or majority said that the tax preparation is worse than a trip to the dentist."

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Dem Convention Poll

Dem Convention Poll: "Markos is running a poll to see which city people prefer for the 2008 Dem convention. Go vote here. Also, keep up with convention-related news at Democratic Convention Watch.

UPDATE: You can check out the results here. Denver (my choice) and New Orleans are pretty much tied at about 30% apiece. No other city even breaks out of single digits. (At the moment, Minneapolis is in third at 8%.) I get the sense that Dean likes the whole 'western strategy' idea and might favor Denver. Of course, we won't know until the end of the year at the earliest."

NC House Races: Got `Em All Covered

NC House Races: Got `Em All Covered: "It was looking dicey there just a week or two ago, but as of today's deadline, Dems have filed to run against every incumbent Republican in North Carolina. Courtesy of RBH:

NC-01 (57/43 Kerry): Butterfield (D) unopposed
NC-02 (54/46 Bush): Etheridge (D) v. Dan Mansell (R)
NC-03 (68/32 Bush): Jones (R) v. Craig Weber (D)
NC-04 (56/44 Kerry): Price (D), Kent Kanoy (D), or Oscar Lewis (D) v. Steve Acuff (R)
NC-05 (67/33 Bush): Foxx (R) v. Mark Glen (D), Syndi Holmes (D), Roger Kirkman (D), or Roger Sharpe (D)
NC-06 (70/30 Bush): Coble (R) v. Rory Blake (D)
NC-07 (56/44 Bush): McIntyre (D) v. Shirley Davis (R)
NC-08 (54/46 Bush): Hayes (R) v. John Autry (D), Tim Dunn (D), Larry Kissell (D), or Mark Ortiz (D)
NC-09 (64/36 Bush): Myrick (R) v. Bill Glass (D)
NC-10 (67/33 Bush): McHenry (R) v. Richard Carsner (D)
NC-11 (57/43 Bush): Taylor (R) or John Armor (R) v. Michael Morgan (D) or Heath Shuler (D)
NC-12 (63/37 Kerry): Watt (D) v. Ada Fisher (R)
NC-13 (53/47 Kerry): Miller (D) v. John Hendrix (R), Vernon Robinson (R), or Charlie Sutherland (R)

Good work, NC Dems. Now we just need to win a few of these!"

Friday, January 27, 2006

NY-Sen: Cox Out; Spencer, Seemingly, In

Posted by DavidNYC

No one, it seems, wants to take on Hillary Clinton. With Jeanine Pirro vanishing into the ether, the NY GOP turned (once again) to Ed Cox, most famous for being the son-in-law of Dick Nixon. Cox, who actually had either the sense or grace to bow out when Pataki endorsed Pirro, decided it wasn't worth bowing back in. So they're down to a guy named John Spencer, who I always thought was a recently-deceased star on West Wing. Turns out, he's also a former mayor of Yonkers.

Not that you needed any confirmation, but this race is going to be seriously dull. A few people have noted that HRC is fundraising gold for the right - her name alone in direct-mail solicitations increases the return rate dramatically (or so it's said). Without even a semi-serious challenger for Clinton, she'll be able to fly under the radar for much of the campaign season, so it'll be that much more difficult to milk her name for some good old fashioned hate-bucks. Of course, she's still a celebrity and will get more coverage than most candidates, but this campaign probably won't produce many sparks of the sort which can light a fire under the anti-Hillary base.

Of course, they'll probably just make shit up anyhow.

Thursday, October 20, 2005

My Ticket

I'm going to make my prediction early. I am thinking of a Cheney-Guliani ticket, or even a Cheney - Bush ticket.

Saturday, September 10, 2005

Bush Approval Dips

Poll: Bush Approval Dips

Saturday, September 10, 2005

WASHINGTON — President Bush's job approval has dipped below 40 percent for the first time in the AP-Ipsos poll, reflecting widespread doubts about his handling of gasoline prices and the response to Hurricane Katrina.

Nearly four years after Bush's job approval soared into the 80s after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, Bush was at 39 percent job approval in an AP-Ipsos poll taken this week. That's the lowest since the the poll was started in December 2003.

The public's view of the nation's direction has grown increasingly negative as well, with nearly two-thirds now saying the country is heading down the wrong track.

"As a nation, we are pretty well stretched," said Barry Allen (search), a political independent from Reed City, Mich. "I approve of some of the things the president has done, and disapprove of others. Overall, I disapprove."

Allen said he liked some of Bush's economic steps during his first term but has been dissatisfied with the president's economic moves in his second term, his Iraq policy and his handling of gasoline prices.

Allen worries Hurricane Katrina (search) has taken the wind out of an economy that was moving in the right direction.

With gasoline racing past $3 a gallon, Bush's standing on dealing with those prices may be one of his biggest problems — seven in 10 said they disapprove.

And just over half in the poll, 52 percent, said they disapprove of the president's handling of the hurricane.

For Bill Kane of Kingsland, Ga., the government's slow response to the hurricane "was terrifying to see in our own country. It made you mad, because it made you think where's our money going?"

More evidence of problems with the storm response surfaced Friday when the Federal Emergency Management Agency announced it would discontinue a 2-day-old program to issue debit cards worth to displaced families.

The administration also dumped FEMA Director Michael Brown, who had come to symbolize the stumbling early days of the hurricane response, as commander of Katrina relief efforts.

Brown once served as the judges and stewards commissioner for the International Arabian Horse Association.

"Bush puts people in jobs who don't know what they're doing," said Shirley Carignan, a retiree and a political independent from Weymouth, Mass. "I think he's picking friends for these jobs. My girlfriend raises Arabians. You know horses, so what? Horses and people are different things."

The number of people who think the country is on the wrong track grew from 59 percent last month to 65 percent this month. Tumbling consumer confidence after Hurricane Katrina may be contributing to that sense of pessimism.

The RBC CASH Index, based on polling by Ipsos, showed that consumer confidence sank in September to the lowest level since early March 2003 before the start of the Iraq war.

Economic woes and a continuing war in Iraq have been complicated by the continuing hurricane recovery crisis.

"A lot of Americans don't pay attention to their leaders on a day-to-day basis," said Robert Blendon, a public opinion analyst at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government (search). "They measure presidents, governors and mayors on how they handle big events like a hurricane. This event is not over because the bodies are going to be discovered day by day."

Tuesday, August 23, 2005

Where are the candidates?

Well, I haven't seen very much in the name of who's going to run. However, I have noticed Wesley Clark joining the Fox News team, obviously to get face time. He answers all of his questions in a "this is how I would do it" way. I would count him in.

Friday, June 17, 2005 - 06/16/05 FOX Poll: A Look Toward 2008 Election and Quick Glance Back at 2004

06/16/05 FOX Poll: A Look Toward 2008 Election and Quick Glance Back at 2004

Thursday, June 16, 2005

By Dana Blanton

NEW YORK — Could it be Clinton versus Giuliani in 2008? If the two major political parties were selecting their nominees today, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (search) would be the choice for Democrats and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (search) for the Republicans.

In the latest FOX News poll, Clinton trounces the competition and receives the backing of 44 percent of self-described Democrats. Familiar names — the party’s 2004 ticket — follow her: Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (search) receives 17 percent and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards 14 percent.

Among self-described Republicans, Giuliani (29 percent) edges out Arizona Sen. John McCain (search) (26 percent). No others receive double-digit support, but former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is closest at 9 percent.

Opinion Dynamics Corporation conducted the national telephone poll of 900 registered voters for FOX News on June 14-15.

Most voters think it is likely that a woman will be on one of the presidential tickets in 2008, either as a presidential or vice presidential candidate. Over three-quarters think it is likely and more than 4 in 10 think it is "very likely" (44 percent). Hedging their bets, women (75 percent) are slightly less likely than men (81 percent) to think it is likely a female will be on a 2008 ticket.

The poll asked a handful of questions pairing two prominent women in Washington: Sen. Clinton and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. By 49 percent to 35 percent, Clinton is seen as "tougher." Rice has a slight advantage on "smarter" (38 percent Rice, 36 percent Clinton).

Equal numbers (54 percent each) think Clinton and Rice have the integrity to serve as president. It is widely believed that Sen. Clinton will enter the race; while Rice is arguably the most prominent Republican woman today, she has said she has no desire to run for president.

For fun, the poll asked voters how they would view a Hillary Rodham Clinton presidency — would it be her presidency or would it really be a third term for Bill Clinton? A sizeable majority (67 percent) would see it more as her term in office, with about one in five (19 percent) calling it a "third term" for the former president.

"It is clear that unlike some political spouses who are seen as merely extensions of the officeholder, Hillary Clinton is viewed as an independent and credible political figure in her own right," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "Of course, this also means that she has made her own set of political enemies and critics. Even before President Clinton was elected, she was far more visible and more controversial than any other presidential spouse at least since Eleanor Roosevelt."

And how do voters feel about the possibility of former President Clinton being back into the White House? As in many things these days, opinion is divided: 38 percent say "enthusiastic" and 33 percent "scared."

Howard Dean in the News

Recently former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has been in the news in his role as chair of the Democratic National Committee. Dean has made several remarks, such as suggesting that Republicans are untrustworthy, that caught the attention of not only Republican leaders, but also several in his own party as well.

Overall, about 4 in 10 voters say they are familiar with Dean’s recent comments, 21 percent say they are "very" and 20 percent "somewhat" familiar. Of those familiar with his remarks, few (27 percent) think Dean was speaking for most Democrats (62 percent say he was not).

Dean’s favorable rating has dropped 10 percentage points since earlier this year. Currently 23 percent of voters have a favorable view of Dean, down from 33 percent in March, and 41 percent have an unfavorable view. And even though Dean ran for president in 2004, many voters are either unable to form an opinion (24 percent) or have never heard of Dean (13 percent).

Just over half of voters (52 percent) have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton and about a third unfavorable (37 percent).

Likewise, President George W. Bush’s favorable rating is 52 percent, with 42 percent unfavorable.

2004 Vote for President: Few Want a Mulligan

An overwhelming majority of voters say they still agree with their vote choice in the 2004 presidential election. Fully 92 percent say they would stick with their guy. Only 3 percent say they regret their vote and another 2 percent have mixed feelings.

Virtually all of Bush and Kerry voters (94 percent) still agree with their vote. Four percent of Bush voters say they regret how they voted, as do 3 percent of Kerry voters.

Even though it was recently reported that Bush had slightly higher grades than Kerry did at Yale University, a 43 percent plurality of voters still think Kerry is the one with better grades. About a quarter (27 percent) got it right and say Bush had better grades in college.

Monday, May 16, 2005

Gettin Ready

~as posted on Bradsblog

I have to wonder how many people are noticing the grooming of Jeb that is going on. If you remember, when then Governor "W" was debating for the presidency, his biggest hurdle was lack of international experience. Recently, Jeb has been involved very deeply with the tsunami disaster and recently been involved with the Pope deal.

What about Bayh?

Evan Bayh is known to be exploring the possibility of running in 2008. What may not be as well known is that as of March 31st of this year he had $7 million of available cash in his campaign fund. Hillary leads the pack with $8.7 million.

I think the jury is still out on wether or not a woman can win the presidency. I personally would have no trouble voting for a woman, but others may.

Bayh has proven he can get red state votes. He has money. The question is does he want the nomination?

Thursday, May 12, 2005

Dean's formula for the new Democratic Party

The chairman of the DNC, Howard Dean, has recently come out to publicly give new direction to the Democrats in 2008. His plan? "Jesus, balanced budgets, and gun neutrality". I must admit, this is a serious push by the democrats to become a more moderate party, and to appeal to independents and left leaning republicans.
"I'm going to tell them we're going to run in all 50 states, that the days of running in 18 states are over, and that we're going to help them in all races, down to the state and local level. I'm going to tell them we're going to build machines in their states with their own people, not with imported people."
Didn't Kerry say this as well?...Oh well, at least they both have good intentions.

Dean was governor of Vermont where he balanced 8 consecutive budgets and was endorsed every year by the National Rifle Association. I question Dean's ability to cut into Republican supporters, as he is seen as a left leaning democrat and adopting this policy exclusively for vote gain.

Monday, May 02, 2005

Rudi 2008?

Patrick Ruffini is conducting a ongoing poll about how Rudi Gulliani would stand up against more conservative candidates for the 2008 republican nomination. When pitted against Bill Frist, John McCain, or Goerge Allen, it looks like Rudi would still get the nomination. Check out the poll and comments here.

Monday, April 25, 2005

Jealous F. Kerry

Well, it looks like JFK is getting fired up over the fact that Hillary was introduced at at a dinner earlier this month as the next president of the united states. The report in the NY Post has the details. John Kerry has been trying to keep himself as the party's nomination in 2008, but ol Hillary seems to be getting more support. I wouldn't mind seeing either one of them as the candidate, since I don't think either can win the election.

Sunday, April 24, 2005

Saturday, April 23, 2005

Jeb Bush to lead U.S. delegation to Rome

Jeb Bush to lead U.S. delegation to Rome
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush's brother, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, will lead the U.S. delegation to Sunday's inaugural Mass in Rome for Pope Benedict XVI.
Separately, 21 House members left Friday to attend the Mass, which marks the transition of leadership in the Roman Catholic Church. Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., is heading that delegation.

It's the second time this year that Bush has turned to his brother for an important administration duty on the global stage. In January, the president sent the Florida governor to Asia alongside then-Secretary of State Colin Powell to survey the devastation from the Dec. 26 earthquake and tsunami.

Such moves have spurred talk that Jeb Bush, despite denials, plans to run for president in 2008 and that his brother is helping him add to his credentials in international affairs.

The president and his wife led the delegation to Pope John Paul II's funeral.

Completing the White House delegation to the Mass are Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele; Carl A. Anderson, chief executive officer of the Knights of Columbus; Helen Alvare, a law professor from Catholic University of America, and Frank Hanley, president emeritus of the International Union of Operating Engineers.

Election 2008

Election 2008
Here are some semi-recent polls putting various candidates against each other.

Up and running

This is a test post.